- Home
- What is Peak Oil?
- Info & Resources
- Events
- Forums
- Get Involved
- Recent Posts
- Contact Us
- Login
RENEWABLE ENERGY SINK-HOLE
Submitted by jimmiller5417 on October 17, 2008 - 9:42pm
The current Federal Funders and grantees are and have been for many years, “gaming the system” and winning. Congress and the taxpayers are the losers. It's time to change the odds in the Federal Slot Machine, level the playing field among all grant applicants-- large and small – those with and without Ph.D's on their staff – and which involve early stage “risks”. For instance, cut-off or greatly reduce grants to Rand, SRI and SAIC and put those “reserved” funds in the hands of early stage, startups which have promising energy production technology solutions, on the theory: “More Bang for the Buck”.
I've figured out why the U.S. Government has not accomplished much in the field of biomass and other renewable energy sources, except for the subsidy gifts to food/feed crop-based ethanol processing industry.
RENEWABLE ENERGY SINK-HOLE
-- Federal Renewable Energy Funders keep up the pretense of wanting to find “solutions”.
By Jim Miller
The current Federal Funders and grantees are and have been for many years, “gaming the system” and winning. Congress and the taxpayers are the losers. It's time to change the odds in the Federal Slot Machine, level the playing field among all grant applicants-- large and small – those with and without Ph.D's on their staff – and which involve early stage “risks”. For instance, cut-off or greatly reduce grants to Rand, SRI and SAIC and put those “reserved” funds in the hands of early stage, startups which have promising energy production technology solutions, on the theory: “More Bang for the Buck”.
I've figured out why the U.S. Government has not accomplished much in the field of biomass and other renewable energy sources, except for the subsidy gifts to food/feed crop-based ethanol processing industry.
Most of the ethanol subsidy gifts go to the major agri-mega-corporations, which are staunchly Republican and can be counted on for copious amounts of Republican campaign contributions.
Voters in the Corn Belt are pleased with the subsidy gifts from the rest of the U.S. Taxpayers.
Sellers of E85 derive some slight cost reduction (in theory).
The Bush Administration is opposed to renewable energy sources, except for their public relations value. Bush's OMB cut 25 million from the NREL budget the day after Bush's 2007 State of the Union speech where he extolled the virtues of renewable energy.
Renewable energy, especially liquid fuels, compete with the Seven Sisters and the infrastructure which supports them and feeds off them. They spare no lobbing expense to kill Renewables funding.
The Federal Funders for renewable energy grants, prefer funding “studies” at universities and think thanks, which only do studies and more studies and very seldom reach a true solution. This keeps the cash flowing to their feeding dishes – why ruin a good thing by finding a true solution which would end the grants and reduce the cash flow from Congress? Studies are cheap to do, so the net profits to the grantees are huge.
The Federal energy agencies are complicit in this plan. So long as there is a huge need to become energy independent, there will always be high need for the federal agencies and laboratories – thus ensuring funding and employment for the hordes of federal employees and the federal contractors and suppliers. As long as no real solution is obtained, the cash flow from Congress and the U.S. Treasury keeps on flowing.
Most Federal awards are made with an equity participation on the grantee side required. This insures that only existing companies which have plenty of resources receive the awards.
Many of the funded projects are for companies which have a history of obtaining grants, thus making the “vetting” of grant proposals a rubber stamp operation.
Innovative discoveries are thus discouraged, largely because most of the inventors are not personally wealthy. This keeps down the flow of work by the Federal Funders, thus making the employees' jobs a snap to do, then spend the rest of the day attending meetings or on the phone.
Federal Energy Development Loans/grants are made on hard-nosed, banker terms, thus few go to revolutionary discoveries, because most of those are early stage and involves “risks”. Federal Funders direct the awards to very small increments of existing, proven technology on the theory: “Many Bucks for Few Bangs”.
Government employees choose to work for government in large part because of job security (low risk of being fired), the longevity of government programs and funding cycles (endless backlog of perceived need/customers), and low demands for performance, other than being to being to work on time. They are necessarily “risk adverse” in their personal life and carry that attitude into their job performance. Thus if an application is “too entrepreneurial” or risk-taking, it is killed in favor of low risk, safe, predictable outcome studies and experiments.
Grants have hidden criteria. The most common on is that the study or experiment must have been completed, the documentation prepared, but not published, but otherwise ready to be published. The grant is made, then the report is published. This approach further reduces the risk of failure of the study or experiment. The result is that only well-financed companies and universities can afford to play this game.
Grant applicants who are generally successful, have “gamed” the system, by establishing friendly relations with one or more staff persons who are at the center of the grant approval and funding process. These “ultimate insiders” lobby the applicant's grants through the system. Their rewards come when they need a job or retire. One or more “client” applicants are sure to employ the former inside lobbyist.
Nearly all loans/grants are given to companies and institutions, who have the financial ability to employ a Ph.D. In the field of discovery – a very costly approach. Without a Ph.D. as the “Principal Investigator” the grant/loan applicant has no hope of gaining an audience and a grant/loan.
Simple question: Why after all the billions of Federal Funding to these traditional grantees, don't we have many solutions to our energy needs? The answer is that the solutions are not that hard to find. They are hard to implement because the implementation is not in the best interest of Federal and State Funders nor of the corporate or institutional grantees.
Venture Capitalists are no help where the inventor will not help commit fraud on the future buyer of the business or technology by over blowing the invention to implement the “exit strategy”.
Why should Congress and the American taxpayers put money into basic R and D if industry is not willing to do so?
“Yet U.S. industry is investing less and less in basic research and development (R&D). As a percentage of sales in industry, R&D has been falling since 2000, but more importantly, industry contributed only 4 percent of its R&D budget to the basic research that drives future breakthroughs.2
In an economic landscape dominated by the need for short-term capital returns, the immediate incentive to sustain large commercial research centers simply does not exist, as evidenced by the recent demise of Bell Labs. These outposts of learning have been crucial to American technological advancement, and the reduction of their role is not a propitious sign.”
Short-Changing Our Future: America's Penny-Wise, Pound-Foolish Approach to Supporting Tomorrow's Scientists
By Michael J. Biercuk, Ph.D.
http://www.ppionline.org/ppi_ci.cfm?knlgAreaID=140&subsecid=289&contentid=254793
The title is a bit misleading
This is more about what the Feds are doing about renewables then anything else.
Renewable energies are a myth, like the earth is flat
My research shows that there are no substitutes for oil, and there are no solutions to Peak Oil impacts.
Global crude oil production peaked in 2008.
The media, governments, world leaders, and public should focus on this issue.
Global crude oil production had been rising briskly until 2004, then plateaued for four years. Because oil producers were extracting at maximum effort to profit from high oil prices, this plateau is a clear indication of Peak Oil.
Then in August and September of 2008 while oil prices were still very high, global crude oil production fell nearly one million barrels per day, clear evidence of Peak Oil (See Rembrandt Koppelaar, Editor of "Oil Watch Monthly," December 2008, page 1) http://www.peakoil.nl/wp-content/uploads/2008/12/2008_december_oilwatch_monthly.pdf.
Peak Oil is now.
Credit for accurate Peak Oil predictions (within a few years) goes to the following (projected year for peak given in parentheses):
* Association for the Study of Peak Oil (2007)
* Rembrandt Koppelaar, Editor of “Oil Watch Monthly” (2008)
* Tony Eriksen, Oil stock analyst; Samuel Foucher, oil analyst; and Stuart Staniford, Physicist [Wikipedia Oil Megaprojects] (2008)
* Matthew Simmons, Energy investment banker, (2007)
* T. Boone Pickens, Oil and gas investor (2007)
* U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (2005)
* Kenneth S. Deffeyes, Princeton professor and retired shell geologist (2005)
* Sam Sam Bakhtiari, Retired Iranian National Oil Company geologist (2005)
* Chris Skrebowski, Editor of “Petroleum Review” (2010)
* Sadad Al Husseini, former head of production and exploration, Saudi Aramco (2008)
* Energy Watch Group in Germany (2006)
* Fredrik Robelius, Oil analyst and author of "Giant Oil Fields" (2008 to 2018)
Oil production will now begin to decline terminally.
Within a year or two, it is likely that oil prices will skyrocket as supply falls below demand. OPEC cuts could exacerbate the gap between supply and demand and drive prices even higher.
Independent studies indicate that global crude oil production will now decline from 74 million barrels per day to 60 million barrels per day by 2015. During the same time, demand will increase. Oil supplies will be even tighter for the U.S. As oil producing nations consume more and more oil domestically they will export less and less. Because demand is high in China, India, the Middle East, and other oil producing nations, once global oil production begins to decline, demand will always be higher than supply. And since the U.S. represents one fourth of global oil demand, whatever oil we conserve will be consumed elsewhere. Thus, conservation in the U.S. will not slow oil depletion rates significantly.
Alternatives will not even begin to fill the gap. There is no plan nor capital for a so-called electric economy. And most alternatives yield electric power, but we need liquid fuels for tractors/combines, 18 wheel trucks, trains, ships, and mining equipment. The independent scientists of the Energy Watch Group conclude in a 2007 report titled: “Peak Oil Could Trigger Meltdown of Society:”
"By 2020, and even more by 2030, global oil supply will be dramatically lower. This will create a supply gap which can hardly be closed by growing contributions from other fossil, nuclear or alternative energy sources in this time frame."
With increasing costs for gasoline and diesel, along with declining taxes and declining gasoline tax revenues, states and local governments will eventually have to cut staff and curtail highway maintenance. Eventually, gasoline stations will close, and state and local highway workers won’t be able to get to work. We are facing the collapse of the highways that depend on diesel and gasoline powered trucks for bridge maintenance, culvert cleaning to avoid road washouts, snow plowing, and roadbed and surface repair. When the highways fail, so will the power grid, as highways carry the parts, large transformers, steel for pylons, and high tension cables from great distances. With the highways out, there will be no food coming from far away, and without the power grid virtually nothing modern works, including home heating, pumping of gasoline and diesel, airports, communications, and automated building systems.
Documented here:
http://www.peakoilassociates.com/POAnalysis.html
http://survivingpeakoil.blogspot.com/