Post Carbon Newsletter - December 2008

The Peak Everything Year

For those who understand the overwhelming importance of fossil fuel depletion, the signal event of 2008 was without doubt the oil price spike that sent the cost of a barrel of crude rocketing to $147. Knock-on effects were as anticipated: the airline industry contracted, the auto industry went on life support, food prices jolted upward, and the overall economy went into reverse (more on that below). Due to all of these things, the demand for oil subsequently peaked and began to slide, which in turn caused the price to plummet, with no end currently in sight.

I am among several commentators who have gone on record as saying that July 2008 will turn out to have been the all-time record month for world petroleum production. With the price so high (in July), all producers were pumping flat out. And now, with the price so low, there is no incentive to make the required enormous investments in future productive capacity, so that when demand picks up again (and it may be a few years before that happens), new additions to supply will not be sufficient to overcome the capacity erosion that will have accumulated in the interim due to depletion and decline in existing oilfields. Say goodbye to Peak Oil: it's history now...Read more

Photo credit - flickr - .bullish

2008 Year in Review

2008 saw a flurry of new government responses to peak oil, plus groundbreaking legislation in California. Also, the oil price spike, the intensifying global recession and the historic US presidential election have all helped create a sea change in our thinking about energy and what it means for the economy.

Government responses to peak oil

2008 was a big year for government responses to peak oil. When we released our government peak oil guidebook Post Carbon Cities: Planning for Energy and Climate Uncertainty in October 2007, the cities acting on peak oil were largely the 'usual suspects': San Francisco, Portland, Austin, and a handful of small West Coast towns.

Since then a broad range of cities and towns, as well as some counties and states, have taken up the challenge. Conservative, rural Spokane, Washington became the first North American city to launch a joint peak oil - climate change task force, in February. Towns as geographically and economically diverse as Cleveland (OH), Chapel Hill (NC), Westerly (RI) and Haines Borough (AK) also set up task forces. Whatcom County in Washington started up a joint county-city task force with Bellingham. The state of Connecticut established the first state-wide 'energy scarcity and sustainability' task force, while the state of Minnesota legislature passed a resolution to prepare a peak oil plan which was ultimately vetoed by the Governor...Read more

Photo credits - Daniel Lerch

2008 Recap

Despite navigating the many challenges presented by climate change, energy uncertainty, and a fragile global economy, this year has been full of positive developments towards relocalization around the world. Since 2004, the Relocalization Network has grown to include over 200 local groups and affiliates all over the world, all working to prepare their communities for an energy-constrained future. These community-based groups receive guidance, educational resources, and online infrastructure from Post Carbon Institute.

Groups work within their communities in cooperation with local governments, businesses, non-governmental organizations, and educational institutions to put the concept of relocalization into practice. In 2008, local groups engaged in many successful activities, including relocalization campaigns, events, trainings, and projects related to food, energy, transportation, and overall community resiliency.

Check out a recap of projects and activities at-a-glance.

Photo credit - Andi Hazelwood

Keep up to date on energy issues with Post Carbon Institute's commentary feature. Staff, Fellows and guest contributors post short, daily responses to the news of the day. Below are a few highlights from the past year. Be sure to visit our commentaries page regularly for more.

	Peak oil still relevant? More than ever. Daniel Lerch • December 4, 2008 Before the Thanksgiving holiday we got an email from William M., a reader of our newsletter, asking, "Why if oil supply is decreasing and demand is increasing is the price collapsing? What is happening? Is Peak Oil... Read more
	Long Road Ahead Asher Miller • November 5, 2008 The US Presidential election results are historic. Whatever your political persuasion, I think we can all agree that the election of an African-American,... Read more
	You Can’t Reinvent Food Systems Overnight Richard Heinberg • August 5, 2008 My wife Janet and I have spent the past two days canning fruit. We’re also preserving fruit with a solar food dryer. We’ve been planning for a post-carbon food system for eight years now, gradually developing the skills and tools needed to feed ourselves... Read more

2008 greatest hits

This year has been taut with anticipation and dizzying with change. Wildly fluctuating energy prices and economic stresses have made ever more people receptive to the material that Global Public Media offers.

Two programs added this year reflect some of the breadth of the issues covered. Crop to Cuisine, based in Colorado, is a radio program about eating locally. The KunstlerCast is, as its name suggests, a weekly podcast featuring conversations with author James Howard Kunstler with topics loosely organized around urban form and energy descent.

Already-existing programs featured series that were well worth following: among them, Jon Steinman of Deconstructing Dinner does great in-depth research for the series Co-operatives: Alternatives to Industrial Food, which is at five episodes so far. And Peak Moment television took us to the annual meeting of ASPO-USA for a series of interviews with leading figures in the peak oil world.

The audience picks this year reflected global upheavals: here are a few of the most-watched, listened, and read.

	Saying Goodbye to Air Travel The most-read piece this year was Richard Heinberg's essay on the future, or lack of one, of cheap air travel. Its very popularity (and that of a related essay by Kristen Lagadec) is evocative of the difficult decisions many will have to make in the energy-constrained future.
	Peak Moment: Oil and Gas — The Next Meltdown? As part of the aforementioned series of Peak Moment episodes from ASPO-USA 2008, Peak Moment's Janaia Donaldson talks with energy expert Matthew Simmons about the bleak implications of just-in-time supply in a time of diminishing energy supply.
	Reality Report: Chris Martenson on the current financial crisis What are the roots of the current financial crisis? Scientist and financial expert Chris Martenson explains that it has to do with how money is created in our system, which requires an infinitely expanding economy -- on a finite world. With transcript. (And for those who want to delve deeper into economics, there's a handy review of economics-related Reality Report episodes.)
	How do you like the collapse so far? In this essay, published in June, Richard Heinberg explores the important issue of how we can take in what he calls "traumatic knowledge" and continue to function and do our work. (For more on the psychology of living at the peak, see the Peak Moment interview with therapist Molly Brown.) We hope that Global Public Media can help both provide the hard information necessary to navigating these times, and the doses of hope that allow us to process and proceed.

A round-up of 2008 by Energy Bulletin editor Bart Anderson

A selection of articles appearing at Energy Bulletin.

• The IEA Report

The International Energy Agency's report on world energy supplies "World Energy Outlook 2008" was released in mid-November 2008.

This long-awaited report comes from the agency, whose figures form the basis for energy planning by many countries around the world. We had heard that the IEA was going to produce a more realistic and pessimistic report than ever before. Fatih Birol, chief economist for the IEA, had been quoted as saying, "We must leave oil before oil leaves us."

The final report was more contradictory than peak oilers had hoped for, yet it unquestionably painted a grim picture.

For an excellent set of analyses, see The Oil Drum series.

Energy Bulletin ally David Strahan wrote a good summary for the Guardian:

"You can imagine the internal contortions when an old friend was once memorably described as a 60s liberal with Catholic guilt. I got the same impression of grinding gears while reading the International Energy Agency's latest long-term forecast..." Read more

• Oil Supplies: Possible Peak, Prices Plummet

The peak oil picture become very complicated in 2008. Prices had shot up close to $150/barrel. With the onset of worldwide recession, demand dropped and prices fell to below $50/barrel.

Energy Bulletin ally Tom Whipple gives a summary:

"There is a growing consensus among those who follow such things, that the new high of world oil production (87.9 million barrels a day) reached last July is likely to go down in history as the all-time peak..." Read more

• World-wide Recession, Obama's Election

The recession that helped get Barack Obama elected will be the most formidable challenge that any U.S. President has faced in recent times.

Under the Presidency of George W. Bush, few had hoped for a significant change in energy policy. With less than two months before Obama's inauguration, the web is full of suggestions and proposals to tackle the recession and energy situation. A broad coalition supports Keynsian-style government spending to kickstart the economy back to normal - "A new New Deal." Others want an envrionmental emphasis, "A Green New Deal".

Richard Heinberg of the Post-Carbon Insitute summarizes much of the thinking among peak oilers with:

"Our continued national dependence on fossil fuels is creating a crippling vulnerability to both long-term fuel scarcity and catastrophic climate change..." Read more

Featured Events

The 2009 Good Jobs, Green Jobs National Conference

February 4–6, Washington, DC

Just weeks after a new Congress and new administration take office this conference will set the stage for stakeholders from across the country to forge an agenda for realizing the enormous opportunities we can achieve by investing in green jobs.

Peak Oil Investment Summit 2009: Oil, the Economy and Investing

March 17, New York

The Peak Oil Investor Summit is an intensive one-day summit put together by and for the financial community to find out what peak oil is, and how to both protect your capital and identify profit strategies. Get the most up-to-date data and analysis from the world's experts on oil geology, economics, finance and investing. Find out how peaking oil production and higher recovery costs will have impacts beyond conventional wisdom, and make your own decisions about oil supply, trends, risks and opportunities.

Announcements

The Post Carbon Institute office is moving! As of December 15, 2008 you can now find us at 500 N. Main St., Suite 100, Sebastopol, CA 95472. Please be patient as we update all documents, websites, etc., to the new address and convert our phone and internet systems. All phone numbers will remain the same.

The Post Carbon office will be closed for the Holidays from December 25th through January 4th.